My comments will focus on…

My comments will focus on the Risks of High Growth for Norfolk County, Affordable Housing, Water and Sewage, Financial burden, Infrastructure Challenges, and Norfolk County capabilities to manage developments as noted in the Official Plan.

Growth Plan projections from the Norfolk County Official Plan are not correct.

a. This error now changes to proposed population of 92,700 to be 117, 317. To meet the target of 92,700 people, the population of rural areas were manipulated by removing 9,146 homes and 24,671 residents.

This manipulation of numbers has hidden the real impact for Growth.
a. The real Growth rate from 2021 to 2051 is 1.73, not 1.36 as per the Official Plan

b. The erroneous numbers create a gap between estimated services and real numbers that are needed to support the Actual Growth Plan.

c. See Document 1: Norfolk County Growth Rate Summary.

Forecasted Growth in the Official Plan has major infrastructure risks and cost impacts that cannot be supported.

a. High risk for projects to Fail as the County does not have the staff and facilities to manage such a large project.

i. Too many projects will be on-going to manage effectively.

ii. Expediting developments will incur errors and oversights that can cost taxpayers immensely in the future.

iii. Lack of skilled Engineers and skilled trades to approve and monitor developments will lead to sub-standard quality for home buyers.

iv. It currently takes months to get a building permit with current backlog.

b. Safety for residents is at risk with so many construction sites and vehicles on the road due to aggressive building plans.

c. Infrastructure upgrades will be required when the population is at the lowest point in the 27 years of development. Financial assistance will be required. This increases costs to current residents.

i. Mayor Martin stated on July 08, 2024 that Water and Sewage upgrades will require $450M to $500Mat a minimum to replace or upgrade to support the Growth Plan. The net result is that current residents will have to contribute $106, 000 per household up to 2051. The net result is an added $4,000 bill over that time for current residents. Residents that arrive later will not feel the same impact though the ~15% yearly tax increase will be carried by all households until 2051.

ii. Mayor Amy Martin has suggested a new pipeline and sewage plant. Current systems will require upgrades to support growth before the new system is on- line. This is “sunk” money.

iii. Infrastructure costs can be delayed to reducing the affect to current residents though this incurs interest payments.

iv. See Document 2: Water and Sewage document

v. The only way to circumvent this cost is through up-front surcharge of new homes with tax increases from current residents. The scenario is this for new homes: IF infrastructure was not available, ALL new homes would have to pay for ALL services, not just water and sewage. New homes get to use existing and other services without paying capital costs, hence they already receive a non-paid benefit to move to Norfolk County.

vi. See Document 3: Document 3 Water and Sewage with New House Surcharge

vii. The Summary is that current residents cannot carry the costs through taxes only.

d. Hwy 24-A through Waterford will be a bottleneck unless an arterial road is provided to divert traffic around the downtown centre.

i. Emergency Services will be delayed.

ii. One bridge only over the waterways

e. New schools, Medical Centres, Emergency equipment will be required as the population grows. The majority of costs will be required in the early years of growth which burdens the current population unless funding is acquired, or low-cost loans are available. This plan increases cost to current local Norfolk residents unless costs are deferred to a time when higher populations are in place. Deferring reduces the current burden but also incurs interest cost.

f. Additional skilled staff will be required for schools, medical services, and emergency services. Norfolk is not attracting skilled personnel due to low wages and when the costs to each resident to increase services is revealed those skilled services will high costs that are pending with this Official Plan.

g. Ontario requires residents to pay development fees for affordable houses

i. The average cost for development fees for affordable housing in Norfolk for 5% of the homes is ~$884 over 27 years. The total cost would be ~27.6M

ii. These houses will be sold on the open market as developers have declined fixed prices by the Ontario government. Therefore, houses sold on an open market cannot qualify for development fees to be paid by current residents.

Current Norfolk residents cannot afford a home in Norfolk and are now they are being told they have to pay infrastructure costs for Affordable Homes for newcomers.

a. The average earnings for a household in Norfolk County is below national standards in 2020. This gap has increased since 2020. Using the 2020 census as a comparison, the largest nearby centre (Brantford) had a Total income per household of $79,040 in 2020. Norfolk County was $55,980. This is a 24.3% difference due to lower paying jobs.

i. This is a familiar tune all over the world, including Canada. Growth brings money from outside the area that negatively impacts local residents.

ii. A new census will provide insight into why current Norfolk residents cannot buy a new home in their county.

iii. House prices in 2020 reflected lower incomes of Norfolk County

iv. Influx of people from outside of Norfolk County has an effect on house prices.
1. New residents should carry ALL costs for new developments

v. Foreign money is a cost driver for homes
1. Federal and Provincial decisions are impacting housing costs, NOT the residents of Norfolk County.

vi. Retirees forced from larger centres due to immigration.

vii. ALL costs should be carried by outside newcomers for new housing.