This proposed methodology is…

This proposed methodology is a step in the right direction to improving the last version. However, this methodology will still result in an undercount of households, particularly young households. The attached document suggests some revisions to the methodology, including:

-How the population projects are translated into a forecast by age cohort. The Ministry of Finance produces a forecast by age for census divisions. The attached documents recommends a better way of translating that forecast into a population by age forecast for lower tier municipalities.

-Adding a scenario analysis for headship rates. The proposed methodology recommends holding headship rates constant at levels revealed in the latest census. Headship rates can go up or down for many reasons. For example, the Parliamentary Budget Officer produced research showing that the 2021 headship rates were suppressed due to the pandemic. Not accounting for some temporary shifts in headship rates (like the pandemic) may result in perpetuating supressed households. The attached submission proposes using a historical analysis of headship rates by age cohort, and allowing for changes in headship rates when appropriate.

-While a full update to the forecasts along with an Official Plan Update seems reasonable, municipalities should be required to conduct annual monitoring to ensure flexibility in the plan to account for any unforeseen events, or even just mistakes in forecasts.