On behalf of our many…

On behalf of our many municipal clients, we are submitting our comments related to the Proposed Updates to the Projection Methodology Guideline (PMG) to support the implementation of the Provincial Planning Statement, 2024 (PPS, 2024).

Introduction
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. (Watson) is one of Canada’s leading economic consulting firms, comprising municipal economists, planners, accountants, and support staff. The firm has been in operation since 1982. We work with municipalities across the Province on assignments related to growth management strategies, demographic forecasts, comprehensive reviews, employment strategies, housing studies, municipal finance and economics, and more. Watson is a recognized leader in the growth management field across Ontario, having completed numerous comprehensive reviews for lower-tier, upper-tier and single-tier municipalities over the past two decades.
It should be noted that Watson has collaborated with the Ontario Professional Planners Institute (OPPI) in developing recommendations, some of which align with those presented in this document. Our focus in this document is primarily on methodological improvements that, in our view, would enhance the effectiveness and applicability of the PMG for municipalities across Ontario.

Overview Commentary
As part of our review of the proposed new PMG, we note that Watson generally supports the updated document, which replaces the 1995 PMG. Watson’s approach on growth forecasting and land needs assessment has historically aligned with the principles of the 1995 guideline, and we agree that a refreshed document is necessary to better reflect the policy direction of the PPS, 2024. While the core principles of the two documents remain largely consistent, the updated PMG introduces several key distinctions. Specifically, it places greater emphasis on the use of Ministry of Finance (MOF) population forecasts and on more detailed analysis of housing needs, and provides new alternative approaches for conducting land needs assessments (LNAs).

The proposed PMG offers a range of methods and options that we believe are essential, given the diversity of municipalities across Ontario. Municipalities vary widely in both scale and geography, from slower-growing rural townships to rapidly expanding urban centres. In light of this diversity, it is critical that the PMG maintain sufficient flexibility to ensure its effective and context-sensitive application across the Province.

Please see attached document which is a summary of our key recommendations that would enhance the effectiveness and applicability of the PMG.