I find the planning…

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4429

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I find the planning assumptions that of course residential heat is going to move from oil to electricity quite puzzling. Most folks move from oil to gas (or propane) where available. If they have electric heat, replacing it with gas of some sort is the general direction due to the crushing power costs associated with it -- and demand pricing that places the highest costs when people are likely needing power the most. In rural areas the visible movement is from electric baseboards to wood. Granted that burning wood is at least vaguely green, it does release particulates that the baghouse of a conventional powerplant would not. At least wood can provide heat when the grid goes down.

Also, there has been a lot of discussion about forcing people into electric cars to replace fossil fuels -- did not find any inclusion of that potential demand in the planning model. Or any estimate of the impact of carbon taxes, which would cover a large portion of the planning horizon -- I would be surprised if that were economic impact neutral.

[Original Comment ID: 197339]