Submission is seeking…

Submission is seeking modifications to Wellington County Official Plan Amendment 120 to reflect updated population projections for Wellington released by the Ontario Ministry of Finance in the summer of 2023. The population forecasts upon which OPA 120 was based, were prepared by Hemson consulting in 2019, and include out-of-date assumptions including with respect to federal immigration levels, the main driver of growth in Ontario, and being based upon the 2016 Census. For example, the population growth forecasts by Hemson assumed Canadian immigration levels around 350,000 per year year, with only modest changes upwards through the planning horizon of 2051. In fact, subsequently, federal immigration levels have been adjusted dramatically higher, and are at 485,000 for 2023, and 500,000 for subsequent years.

The 2023 Ontario Ministry of Finance Population Projections are more up to date, taking into account changing immigration levels, and the 2021 Census results. As such, the Wellington County population forecasts in OPA 120 should be modified to reflect the new information from the Provincial Population Projections. This should result in changing the 2051 Wellington County population to 192,670 people and 70,362 households. The Centre Wellington population for 2051 should be modified to 71,496, consisting of 27,630 households. Similar proportional adjustments should be made to the population and household forecasts of the other local municipalities in OPA 120.

Updating the forecasts to reflect the more accurate information represents good land use planning. The modifications requested would be in conformity with the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. The provincial Land Needs Assessment Methodology provides for the use of the Ontario Ministry of Finance Population Projections as a data source for calculating growth - especially (as is the case here) where new Census information is available subsequent to the preparation of the Schedule 3 forecasts. Updating the forecasts will also ensure consistency with the Provincial Policy Statement requirements to ensure an adequate supply of land to meet residential needs. Without such modifications, Wellington Official Plan Amendment 120 will not be consistent with the policy requirements of the Provincial Policy Statement.