I am a retired municipal…

I am a retired municipal planner having worked in various municipalities of the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) over the past 35 years. I have worked on comprehensive land needs assessments for municipalities and my comment that follows is a succinct observation of the proposal being put forward concerning the Guelph/Wellington area. (ERO 019-1680 and associated with ERO 019-1679)

The methodology on which the forecasts for Guelph/Wellington have been outlined represents a simple economics forecast that does not consider the full gambit of metrics that define a healthy, sustainable and resilient place.

The Guelph population and associated ‘complete community’ employment forecasts are unrealistic for the time period to 2051. The City of Guelph has grown more or less on a steady basis over the past 200 years (settled in 1827). The City reached 100,000 population in and around the year 2000, and the ON government is now suggested it should double to 200,000 by 2051. This proposition is unreasonable and more importantly UNSUSTAINABLE. The City has significant trunk water, wastewater and waste management issues currently and these matters have not been suitably considered within the simplistic economics model generating the targets, i.e., the model simply treats the land base as a resource where new development can be placed ‘sprawling out’ from Toronto.

In addition to the above, there are significant greenfield development constraints in the Guelph/Wellington area that your economics model doesn’t take into account. The Paris-Galt moraine is found to the south of Guelph and this area needs to be protected for its rich natural heritage (including endangered species habitat) and groundwater resource base. Lands to the east/west/north of the City are prime agricultural lands and these areas need to be protected for our future potential ‘locally grown’ food supply. From planning work completed by the City, there are inadequate lands for intensification/infill opportunities to sustain massive growth, i.e., part of the City's current 2 year Growth Management Strategy update to determine how growth can be accommodated to 2041 - not 2051.

In conclusion, I disagree with the basic forecasts being put forward for the Guelph/Wellington area. There are significant natural restrictions to growth in the City that have not been adequately accounted for. In addition, I would humbly suggest that the ON governments’ focus on so-called ‘market demand’ for development should now be tempered somewhat to instead focus on using a more refined scientific basis for growth rather than simple economics. . . think about our local ‘good’ COVID response instead of a competitive race-to-the- bottom market-focused approach that our friends to the south like to use.

Thanks for reading and considering this comment.