This planning policy is…

This planning policy is based on a number of unrealistic assumptions about future transportation demands by mode, especially given the impact of Covid 19 on transit trip making, and our ability to dramatically increase the supply of new houses. It has long been assumed that increasing residential and employment densities in proximity to rapid transit (any form) will lead to dramatic modal shifts to transit. We have more than 30 years of historical data on the evolution of travel demand by mode (the Transportation Tomorrow Survey) that demonstrate that the observed increases in transit (TTC and GO Rail) were associated with the large increases in downtown jobs (mainly office based) that we saw in the post 1986 period, and that transit modal splits to non-downtown employment centres, including North York City Centre, did not increase as had been assumed, back in the 1980s.

Covid and the dramatic increase in "work from home" supported by new technologies (e.g. Zoom) substantially reduced transit demands, as most downtown office workers were able to work from home. This new reality led to empty GO Rail parking lots across the Region and dramatic drops in transit operating revenues (the main reason for the City of Toronto's revenue deficit). While my friends in the transit industry are hoping for a "return to normal" it will be a new normal which, it appears, is being ignored by planners and policy makers (who would rather not deal with the financial and transportation implications of the "new normal").

The other area where planning assumptions are unreasonable relates to the belief that we can somehow double our annual production of new housing in Ontario and the GTA and that the only constraint is the land use planning process. While I support the move to reduce delays in the approval of new projects and allowing more new housing to be built in urban areas, the industry does not appear to have the resources required to accommodate the population growth targets associated with both new immigration targets and the decisions to dramatically increase the number of foreign students and temporary foreign workers that we let into the country in recent years. No one at the Federal level seems to understand that we don't have enough houses, in the affordable cost ranges, to accommodate the new residents, most of whom have limited incomes. It is about time for the Feds to get involved in supplying affordable housing to our current and new residents once again.